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More numbers are out for the 18th. Most of them speak for themselves.
The others running but not fund raising include the excitable Rich Carson, and Jon Haugen.
With the NRA’s endorsement of Ann Rivers and her continuing enviable fund raising prowess, unmatched by all the other candidates combined, The Vancouver Business Journal called it right when they named her the Republican front-runner. She banked around $8700…. last week.
Dennis Kampe, the lone announced democrat running (Jon Haugen ran for the state senate against Zarelli as a democrat back in 08) Banked a respectable $2400 or so for the week.
Jon Russell impressed, just not the way he might think; by banking $160, $60 of which came from Russell himself.
Brandon Vick, whose family landscaping business must be in the height of their season, has not raised any reported funds since June 20.
Anthony Bittner stopped campaigning months ago. He last reported income in April, and last filed a C4 (Expenses) for May; he’s skipped all campaign events to include parades, editorial boards, forums and CVTV’s video voter guide. He does not have a picture or statement in the Voter’s Pamphlet, although he claims he submitted both.
Do these kinds of numbers guarantee victory for Rivers? Of course not. In a primary scenario, one need go back no farther then the legendary Burkman-Campbell primary for state representative back in, what was it…. 06?
But the fact remains that Rivers is receiving the most POLITICAL support in addition to her monetary accomplishments.
Russell has gone increasingly negative, following the pattern that, well, has resulted in precisely zero political victories around here for candidates where Russell has received a pay check, to include $16,000 from Liz Pike.
His minions are scrambling. But he lacks the time and money needed; too many people know about his proclivity to lie and exaggerate; too many are turned off by his use of Washougal City Government as a campaign prop and far too many find it impossible to believe, as he finds it plausible to believe, that he bears no responsibility for the Beverly Hillbillies type government in place on his watch.
Brandon Vick has worked hard and well. He hasn’t been able to devote the time he’s needed to run an all out campaign but he’s done the best that could be expected under the circumstances.
Bittner, on the other hand, seemed to think that all he needed to do was file and put up a few signs.
Good luck with that.
The “independents” running for this gig have yet to address the “how are you going to get anything done” aspect of the “what next?” in the equation.
Out numbered 97 to 1, chances are few that they could get anything done, or keep anything harmful from getting done.
It’s been a fascinating 8 months are so… a learning experience for some, and exercise in futility for others. And we’ll know 2 weeks from today who moves on… and who moves into obscurity.
Cross posted at Jon Russell Watch.
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>Another nail in Russell’s political coffin: Vancouver Business Journal names Rivers "Republican front runner."
July 9, 2010>.
So, in addition to Russell’s veracity and integrity problems, the Vancouver Business Journal has named Ann Rivers as the “Republican front runner.”
From this article:
New names, new faces
Candidates look to join SW Washington’s state legislative delegation
BY PAUL LEONARD of the VBJ
July 9th, 2010With the primary campaign season just beginning, only one thing seems certain: whatever the outcome, in at least two key state races, Southwest Washington’s legislative delegation in Olympia will get some new blood.
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In the contest to replace Herrera, who is currently making a run for Congress in the Third Congressional District, Republican front runner and small business owner Ann Rivers hopes to make it through a broad field of GOP candidates to face the Democrat, Clark County Skills Center director Dennis Kampe.
“We’ve been down this road for six months,” Rivers said. “It’s almost like giving birth.”
The owner of a public and government relations company since 1996, Rivers has based her campaign largely on business issues, advocating against what she called “onerous” regulations and taxes – in particular, the state’s controversial Business and Occupancy levy on gross receipts.
“I’m fighting this idea that government can squeeze and squeeze businesses until they can’t take it anymore,” she said.
As in the race to fill Wallace’s seat, the 18th Legislative District contest was overshadowed by a yawning state budget deficit and a persistently-high unemployment rate in many communities throughout Southwest Washington.
Kampe, the only Democrat appearing on this year’s ballot in the district, told the VBJ last month he first considered running for the seat because of concerns about education. A fiscal conservative, Kampe looks to attract independent voters in this traditionally GOP-friendly district.
“I think Dennis is a pretty conservative guy,” Probst said. “He’s always described himself as a ‘Republicrat.'”
As of VBJ’s press time, Rivers led with over $42,000 raised thus far, followed by Kampe with $16,495, according to PDC figures.
Rounding out the Republican field in the 18th District, Position 1, is Russell, Brandon Vick and Anthony Bittner, as well as independent candidates Jon Haugen and Richard Carson.
With turnout in Clark County expected to hit 35 percent, according to Clark County Elections supervisor Tim Likness, the election may hinge on who gets out more of their supporters to return their ballots, which will be mailed out July 28.
“It really comes down to how much effort the candidates put into it,” Likness said.
Nevertheless, when a publication like the VBJ uses a label like that, it’s got to hurt the more delusional of candidates.
Right?
Cross posted to Jon Russell Watch.
>18th District wrap up.
June 30, 2010>.
Well, here’s the numbers based on C-3’s filed by the candidates.
Brandon Vick………………$200 to $7300 ($4,415 actual donations)
Jon Russell …………………$195 ($175 in personal funds) to $11,500 or so
Anthony Bittner…………..0 the same at $4571
Ann Rivers………………….$3550 to $43,679 ($35,470 actual donations)
Dennis Kampe……………..$1335 (Plus $1000 in personal funds) to $16,960 ($14,160 actual donations)
Anyone else running has either dropped out or filed short form, limiting their financial involvement to $5000 or less.
So, what’s it all mean?
It means Bittner, Russell and Vick have no serious support.
It means that the democrats have written the 18th off and made Kampe their token candidate, when he has to write himself thousand dollar checks…. that aren’t even loans.
I’ve been doing this long enough to know that money is certainly not the only indicator of support. I’ve been to a couple of parades, for example.
I look at Ann Rivers’ US Senatorial size parade posse, in comparison to lesser candidates like Jaime Herrera or any of the others running…. and I’ve got to wonder: who really has the support?
When Russell finally accepted the inevitable, that is that as a congressional candidate, he had little chance to rise above punchline status and ditched that to run for the 18th, I figured he was a kamikaze candidate.
Russell knows he can’t win. While he claimed he had an “Army of 200 volunteers” when he bailed out of his flaming congressional run, there’s no evidence that he has anything of the sort.
Two hundred volunteers could hold car washes and raise more money than Russell has. And an abysmal showing in this election will fortunately mean he’s through.
Recent events verifying his propensity to lie will follow him for the rest of his hopefully short political career.
Bittner has almost completely disappeared, sullying what otherwise could have been a promising political career by engaging in rather rank cowardice.
While a painful conclusion to draw, the fact is that Bittner has yet to attend a single, solitary forum of any kind. He’s blown off the 18th District PCO’s, the Columbian Editorial Board (An act that for incumbents I recommend, but for new candidates represents something of a vital learning experience and name recognition opportunity) a couple of forums and has, so far, blown off CVTV as well.
From all appearances, this has long since ceased to be a political campaign as much as it’s become an ego boost to a kid who seems to be incapable of taking representation of the people seriously.
Brandon Vick is a young man with a possible future in this business at some point… but now ain’t that point.
He has shown himself incapable of raising anything approaching the necessary money to get his message out. And, unfortunately, it seems he’s saddled himself with many of Shannon Barnett’s campaign herd… and, well, they weren’t all that… and as a result… well, we see the result.
Except for some minor exaggeration on his web site (No Brandon, in fact you’re NOT “the only candidate that has the strength, vision and energy needed to win these battles.”) he has not engaged in the falsehoods of a Russell as a campaign strategy.
At some point, with more experience and a better plan, he could become a force to be reckoned with.
This, however, is not that point.
There are 4 candidates fighting over what amounts as the same universe of disaffected and fringe elements. Haugen has gone completely off the reservation by espousing the idea that we should just eliminate the House of Representatives (ala the Nebraska plan) while Carson’s issue, allegedly based on a failure of the mainstream parties to assist him in his now finished crusade to keep the BPA from running power lines down the street from my place, has vaporized as much as his ability to raise money.
Russell, who is now dealing with 6 different PDC violations (1 repeated) along with allegations that will dog him for the rest of the time he’s in politics, (Concerning his almost pathologically false portrayal of his wife as a doctor) and as someone engaging in a whisper campaign because he’s afraid to make allegations in public, attempts to take ownership of Tea Party affiliation. Vick, who at least showed up for several weeks at the We, The People vetting sessions (also, come to think of it, blown off by young Mr. Bittner) while Russell didn’t seem to be all that frequent a guest; as something of a claim in.
Unfortunately, these people are pounding each other over the same group of voters, and are likely to cancel each other out. Kampe will get the votes of the few democrats who will actually vote in the primary before being destroyed in the general, but his percentage of the vote will likely put him in the top two positions come primary night.
Rivers has run a superior campaign in every respect and looks like she’ll win all of it in the general, but will certainly be in the top two in the primary. Focusing on the issues an staying on target is it’s own reward.
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>So, in the 18th, who’s breaking the law?
June 18, 2010>.
That’s today’s quiz question: who is filing on time for the Public Disclosure Commission and who isn’t?
Well, let’s take a look, shall we?
Filing C-3’s (donation reports) were due on the 7th and 14th.
Who filed for those dates?
Well, Ann Rivers did. Brandon Vick did. Dennis Kampe KINDA did. But he missed his June 7 filing… and then got it in a little late. He filed a C-4 on June 7, but no C-3.
What about the rest of the candidates? Who’s breaking the law?
Anthony Bittner? Check. He hasn’t filed a thing since April 27th.
Jon Russell? Check. He was supposed to file C-3’s on the 14th, according to this:
June 1 Begin filing C-3 reports weekly, each Monday, for deposits made during
previous 7 days (Monday thru Sunday)
Russell’s filing manually in an effort to make it a little more difficult to find out that he’s paying off congressional debt with state representative campaign funds… something of a definite no-no. And, of course, the second he’s able to find enough suckers to get him up over $10,000, (You know, the same $10,000 he claimed to have already raised to the PCO’s on May 22nd? THAT $10,000?) he’s going to have to retroactively file his entire campaign electronically.
But then, Russell’s never been one about true transparency, has he?
And where’s his filing for the 14th?
No where.
Hiding hings as a part of your campaign isn’t all that great of a strategy. Paying for things with state funds that are prohibited for a federal race… also not cool.
Paying someone (Gary Wyram) to do hit pieces under the guise of disinterested bystander for We The People without him indicating that he’s being paid to do it?
Typically Russell. And typically unethical and scummy.
Cross-posted at Jon Russell Watch.
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>Is it time for Russell and Vick to withdraw in the 18th?
May 11, 2010>.
In reviewing the most recent PDC’s for fundraising, we see the following numbers of note:
So, what we have here is Rivers having raised about $28,000 or so, Russell (who filed manually) at $4500 or so, and Brandon Vick at $2750 raised (The rest of the money showing is in-kind and loans.)
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According to the records, Brandon Vick raised $300 in the month of April. Shannon Barnett’s endorsement availed him nothing.
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Russell, abortive Congressional candidate, raised $1524 for the month of April.
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People, your horse is so dead that the corpse has walked away. Beating it any further… I dunno… just seems like an exercise in futility.
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For your political futures, the one thing I would think you’d want to avoid is humiliation. But that’s what it seems you’re facing.
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You can’t win a campaign on $300 months. You can’t. And you can’t do much better on $1500 months, either.
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But hey, that’s the beauty of our system. So, if’n you’re of a mind, knock yourselves out.
Just sayin‘
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Cross posted at Jon Russell Watch.
>Interesting goin’s ons on the 18th.
May 10, 2010>.
Two candidates have announced their withdrawal from the 18th District race; one a total surprise, the other more or less expected. The question is this: what does it all mean?
Shannon Barnett has discovered that Jaime Herrera has no coat tails and carrying her water like the 13th Amendment hadn’t been ratified gets you precisely no where. Hatred by itself cannot be a motivation to run for office.
Robert Dean has apparently discovered that Ann Rivers shares many of his views, concerns and experiences and has left the race, endorsing Ann Rivers on the way out.
That leaves Rivers, Bittner, Russell, and Vick.
Ann Rivers appears to have run a technically and strategically flawless campaign. She’s put together an endorsement list that reads like a “Who’s Who” of political and business leaders from the area. She has a history of fighting for conservative causes, and has elected conservative candidates in the past. Well connected, pragmatic, an experienced grasp of the issues with an openness and understanding of the issues unmatched in the 18th. Her fund-raising has been astounding: she has amassed $30,000 plus.
Anthony Bittner is an interesting case. He just turned 18, but he lacks most anything you would expect in the successful candidate: experience, education, understanding, situational awareness and money raising skills. He shows no endorsements.
Giving credit where it’s due, however, Bittner has raised more money than two older candidates during the short time of his candidacy, including a failed former congressional candidate. Even though much of his money is from family members and none of it appears to be from within the district except for that, it’s still spendable and it’s $3850. But there has to be much more to a candidate than criticizing the Constitution.
Brandon Vick has difficulty raising money to date; though the updates are due tomorrow, Brandon shows that he’s put together $2450 so far. Vick was the “beneficiary” of Barnett’s departure; surely that stung Jon Russell the most. But Vick’s positions are pie in the sky, lacking the pragmatic understanding of the reality of Olympia… a pandering set of concepts that will appeal to the far right.
He shows impractical idealism with impossible goals that no freshman can achieve or hope to achieve. Jumping up and down and yelling “we need to do A,B, and C” won’t get it done. And new members of the House provide zero leadership… in anything. You’ve got to pay your dues to get there, and you’ve got o pay your dues once you show up. He shows no endorsements.
That leaves us with Russell.
Jon Russell Watch covers him, but the Cliff’s Notes version is that Russell has done an abysmal job as a Washougal City councilman; he did an abysmal job in a congressional campaign, and he’s doing an abysmal job running a campaign for state representative. His records indicate that he’s put together $3127.
He’s made misrepresentations about others, and he has refused to address the issues brought to his attention… because, well, they’re problematic.
Bittner will naturally appeal to the very young voter as sort of a boutique candidate… but the young voter won’t be turning out, particularly in a primary. Russell and Vick will be fighting over and split the same universe of voters. Rivers will get the majority of the women’s vote, independents and all but the far right.
As the natural winnowing process continues, for a variety of personal and realistic reasons, one wonders: when will more drop out?
Realistically, do candidates who’ve raised less then $4000 of donor cash have any chance in this race?
Is their purpose to get elected… or to keep others from getting elected?
We see Dino Rossi supporters here locally throwing a fit over other candidates having the temerity to stay in in the event the Great Dino deigns to announce. One wonders: have these same people made any effort to reduce the number of candidates in the 18th?
Yup. One wonders.
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>Impressions of a County Convention-Clark County GOP 20 March.
March 21, 2010>.
“I don’t belong to any organized political party… I’m a Republican.”
That could have easily summed up today’s effort by the Clark County GOP.
They live in terror of the Ron Paul types who, apparently, “took over” the 49th District in ’08. As a result, they slipped in a change to the rules that served to silence the delegates at the convention from running any resolutions from the floor.
“Time” was the excuse given. But at the end of the day, “time” is no excuse for silencing the bedrock of the local GOP.
The convention “HAD” to close at 5:00 PM sharp, we were told. So, therefore, in the interest of “time,” we had to silence the delegates. That wasn’t the main excuse, of course, but it was the excuse given.
I pointed out that one way to fix that would be to find a facility that DIDN’T have to close at 5:00 pm, because doing the same thing over and over while expecting a different outcome is, well, you know.
So, I made an effort to amend the rules. I made a motion to strip out the language limiting resolutions to those submitted in writing prior to March 13… and I was hammered.
Later, I was told by the chief tool of the hammering that it was because I had, they thought, thrown my lot in with the Paulinista’s. That was wrong on so many levels, but because of their fear, I was turned into collateral damage by people who could not and would not tolerate any agenda that did not closely dovetail with their own.
Then, the candidate speeches started.
Herrera got up and did a Barbie cheerleader speech typical of someone with cardboard depth and a vacuous grasp of the issues. Here’s clue, Jaime: we don’t care that you used to be able to play basketball. The president can do that, and look at what a total moron he is.
Doug Simpson, speaking for Clint Didier, got up and went off script, losing Didier the few votes he had in the room. Benton did his usual fine job, polished by years of experience and a deep passion for the job; David Castillo got up and actually made sense; the newest candidate (who’s name escaped me) got up and talked about the things important to him, but didn’t do to well due to his lack of experience. A large group of candidates spoke to a surprisingly small number of delegates, considering.
When I’ve had the chance to review the speeches, I’ll critique them here, and folks can draw their own conclusion.
I then went in search of Herrera supporters who, could explain to me what they could possibly see in Ridgefield Barbie to support her.
I couldn’t find one who could articulate it.
We split off into districts to elect delegates to the state convention.
I have actually run a state convention (Spokane in 2000) and attended a National Convention (Philadelphia in 2000) and I, personally, would rather dive into a pool of burning hydrochloric acid then do either again.
But others wanted to. We were, as I recall, supposed to elect 30 delegates and 30 alternates. I only knew 8 people on the list I could support, and I added 2 who said they were veterans. So, I voted for 10. I didn’t know or care who was elected for either the rest or the the alternates.
For the 18th District, it took about 3 hours to get the delegates and the alternates voted in. So, we started on the platform and resolutions two hours late.
My resolution from the caucuses, to require a county wide vote on the horrific waste of money known as the I-5 Bridge/Loot rail project, was adopted.
I discussed the issue with Marc Boldt. Boldt pledged to me that he would support putting the question onto the November ballot this year.
I will hold him to his word, because I already know that Tom Mielke will support putting the question to the people in an advisory vote scenario, which is what Marc agreed to as well.
So, we should hopefully see that coming up soon.
Anyway, it ended. The Benton Bars (Chocolate and maple bars, a Benton tradition) vacuumed up, the various cookies and gallons of coffee, the every-two-year fix for folks to hear themselves speak; the announcement by Jim Dunn that he was going to run again… the massive and unrelenting egos and the typical lack of competence.
What I’ve come to expect every county convention.
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>So, yesterday’s exercise in democracy: the local GOP caucuses.
February 14, 2010>.
I haven’t been to the caucuses for 4 years, so it was with some interest that I went to see the going’s on… and to look at public response to the current scenario confronting us. I thought, “There should be a huge turn out, given the horrific job the democrats are doing at every level.”
There wasn’t.
About 40 people showed up. 3 or 4 precincts had no one at all. My precinct was represented by, well, me and my wife; which also describes 2 or 3 others. One precinct had 12 people show up.
I was hoping for more as an indicator. I was disappointed.
No candidates showed up. One person spoke for Ann Rivers, candidate in the 18th District House race; one for Craig Williams, candidate for US Senate. (As a brief aside, the guy who spoke for Ann spoke off-the-cuff for 45 seconds or so, the woman who spoke for Williams read a massive amount of text off of a web page from a netbook. It was mind-numbing, and bizarre to talk about maybe 20 different subjects at the same time; very difficult to remember any of it.)
A letter was read from State Senator Don Benton (R-17) thanking everyone there for taking the time to show up and asking folks to check out his website. Another letter was read from Jaime Herrera, a typical written-for-her yawner.
Only two candidates had literature there: Ann Rivers and Shannon Barnett… who still doesn’t seem to have a campaign web site up. (How’s that working out for you, Shannon?)(At least this time, he was smart enough not to mention Herrera.)
Barnett used a cute dodge to scam a list: he put out a “survey” that he’ll ignore, except to get names and address off of those who actually believe the results of the surveys mattered.
No other candidates showed up; no other candidates had literature; and no other candidates had any campaign representatives.
We did a part where candidate stuff was done (speakers and the like) a part where resolutions were done (a resolution was passed demanding a vote on this ungodly bridge/loot rail waste among others) and then each precinct voted for county convention delegates.
That was pretty much the whole deal; a rather eloquent exercise in democracy.
Now, some might be just the tiniest bit confused at my multiple protestations on this blog that I am no longer a part of the GOP. If so, then why did I go to their caucuses, and why go to their convention?
Information.
No, I’m not a spy. But *I* need information, so *I* can tell what’s going on.
Now, as a convention delegate, I expect all the candidates will be sending me stuff. And from that “stuff,” I can glean bits of information, critiquing those running to oust the democrats who’ve managed to so cluelessly fly this country into the ground.
I mean, Herrera’s already sent me a fund raising letter. And in her rather bizarre letter, read at the caucus, she mentioned her worthless endorsement by Slade, continued to pound away at her “Senior Legislative Aide” lie, and her spin about “raising the most money in the last 15 days” of the reporting period was as worthless as she is.
So, it’s reasonable to expect that a forest’s worth of pulp will be coming my way…. and at the same time, I can start a push from the ground up to get our commissioners to run the county wide advisory vote that should have been done years ago…. so we can finally drive a stake through the heart of the idiotic nonsense that is the waste of $100,000,000 (so far) on a bridge we don’t need, and loot rail we don’t want.
It was interesting to interact with others as concerned as I am over the damage the left is causing to this country. But it was not the overwhelming response I anticipated.
One has to wonder…. why? The dissatisfaction with leftist government is palpable. If the GOP can find a way to tap into that rage, then 94 will look like a fender-bender for the left in comparison.
But if they can’t get past the abysmal failures of GOP congressional control… if they can’t find a way to convince the people that THIS time, they MEAN it when they say “smaller, more efficient government…. then nothing will happen.
Cross posted on Jaime Herrera Watch.
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Clark County Politics 